You will never learn anything accurate about the situation in Lebanon right now by watching pundits spout poorly-researched, pissing in the wind theories out in order to tittilate and amuse/outrage the viewing populace. Read some books about, look for local blogger perspectives, find an expert's journal/essays/articles on the subject and then put that altogether to synthesize your own opinion as if you actually had thoughts or a brain.
And then you still won't know enough about the situation to have a true perspective on what's happening. It's that complicated. At least you won't look as stupid as the mouth breathers quoting Ann Coulter.